A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the status quo. Each authors two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win here and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has got something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
