Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension caused by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from different nations. Significant resources is devoted on containing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capability enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, defense planes that had been deployed to engage hostile guided weapons flew past – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: multiple launches deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably supplied through partner states. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly transforms into sober acceptance: possibly the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from catastrophe and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a automatic firearm fired at a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – probably Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its objective.
With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: several casualties, damage and infrastructure problems in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a reliance that European nations are demonstrably unable to replace in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from American leadership sparked intense emotion, controversy and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new approach from Washington follows the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, undoubtedly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize certain parties of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership operates on a principle familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration believes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does little to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its advantage in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing lives and land but averting a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its advantage.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not move to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to terminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate certain reluctance to modify developments, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
